With 36% of enrolled voters counted in today’s New South Wales state election, the Poll Bludger’s results currently have Labor leading in 53 of the 93 seats, the Coalition in 27, the Greens in three and independents in ten. Called seats are 43 Labor, 20 Coalition, two Greens and six independents.
If all current leads hold, Labor would have a 13-seat majority. They would need to lose seven seats they currently lead in to fall short of a majority.
The ABC’s two party estimate has Labor leading by 55.1-44.9, a 7.1% swing to Labor since the 2019 NSW election. If this holds, Labor would do better than in all pre-election polls. Newspoll’s 54.5-45.5 to Labor margin came closest, but it is likely there was late movement to Labor that the polls missed by not polling in the final days before the election.
Victory in NSW gives Labor control of all the mainland state and territory governments and the federal government. The only Australian jurisdiction remaining in Coalition control is Tasmania. The next state election is the October 2024 Queensland election.
Since Labor won the May 2022 federal election, they have performed impressively at both the Victorian and NSW state elections, defying expectations that the party in power federally should do badly in state elections. Federal Labor has consistently been polling honeymoon support levels since the election.
Perrottet had made a stand on reforming gambling, but voters were tired of the Coalition after three four-year terms of Coalition government. Cost of living was easily voters’ top concern, and Labor led by 35-29 on this issue in the last NSW Resolve poll.
I will have more analysis of the NSW results and the upper house tomorrow morning.
Federal Aston byelection and Resolve Voice poll
The federal byelection for the Victorian Liberal-held seat of Aston is next Saturday April 1. With Labor’s lead increasing in recent federal polls, they remain some chance to overturn the current 2.8% Liberal margin, but the Liberals are likely to hold.
In additional questions from the federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, support for an Indigenous Voice to parliament slid to 57-43 in a forced choice from 58-42 in February. There was no shift in initial preferences, with 46% in favour, 32% opposed and 22% undecided.
Comparing state results for February and March with those for December and January (two months of data mean larger samples), Voice support fell from 56-44 to 52-48 in Queensland, and from 61-39 to 52-48 in Western Australia. To pass a constitutional referendum, four of the six states must vote in favour as well as an overall majority.
This poll was conducted March 12-16, so it was taken before Anthony Albanese announced the question wording on Thursday.